Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.363992 12.726623 14.283206 16.215102 18.580494 21.426344 25.179971
2024-10-27 9.338262 10.918192 12.853825 15.459785 18.977443 23.727078 30.955224
2024-11-03 9.124127 11.098066 13.681261 17.452208 23.097491 31.799932 47.698358
2024-11-10 8.610758 10.765389 13.720293 18.301697 25.744047 38.589508 66.536787
2024-11-17 7.736381 9.817270 12.745491 17.443248 25.451755 40.286892 76.677638
2024-11-24 7.223944 9.309462 12.324421 17.341599 26.363317 44.502938 96.278988
2024-12-01 6.752050 8.808261 11.845679 17.053674 26.849109 48.024346 118.041096
2024-12-08 6.401390 8.450053 11.540704 16.999985 27.751363 52.869511 151.735518
2024-12-15 6.151280 8.218111 11.404304 17.210405 29.226290 59.884441 210.850532
2024-12-22 5.803425 7.809658 10.943211 16.763975 29.193476 62.807489 258.472230
2024-12-29 5.569802 7.561011 10.720984 16.731132 30.081090 69.048707 360.290822
2025-01-05 5.245025 7.149057 10.193207 16.047966 29.301438 69.485673 415.186967
2025-01-12 4.900169 6.701019 9.597650 15.219768 28.147672 68.624700 464.964076
2025-01-19 4.605337 6.318831 9.091893 14.524535 27.220164 68.335975 535.340983
2025-01-26 4.729370 6.615112 9.778038 16.327869 33.238578 101.870383 4168.225121
2025-02-02 4.681476 6.624189 9.954250 17.093546 36.775492 131.238215 NaN
2025-02-09 4.432572 6.282601 9.463937 16.319709 35.409933 129.555671 NaN
2025-02-16 4.290093 6.113927 9.282857 16.227943 36.216685 144.421395 NaN
2025-02-23 4.137131 5.919723 9.040837 15.967856 36.412500 155.671394 NaN
2025-03-02 4.020375 5.781854 8.895995 15.919332 37.335417 175.719594 NaN
2025-03-09 3.938878 5.700573 8.853149 16.109462 39.193393 211.351724 NaN
2025-03-16 3.796301 5.506469 8.580001 15.705929 38.726251 220.181373 NaN
2025-03-23 3.702972 5.394879 8.461679 15.676219 39.722749 253.167018 NaN